Fall in global CO2 emissions opens opportunity on climate change, says IEA
The global economic downturn has contributed to a decrease in carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in 2009, providing a window of opportunity to reach a global agreement that would stabilize greenhouse gas emissions by mid-century, according to the International Energy Agency.
The findings were delivered in a “special early excerpt” of the IEA’s forthcoming World Energy Outlook (WEO) 2009 report, due in November. The release of the early excerpt, How the Energy Sector Can Deliver on a Climate Agreement in Copenhagen, was timed “to coincide with key climate discussions this autumn, such as the UNFCCC meeting in Bangkok between 28 September and 9 October 2009 which is a fundamental session in the run-up to Copenhagen,” the IEA said.
In a press release, the IEA said CO2 emissions “could fall in 2009 by as much as 3% – steeper than at any time in the last 40 years… This would lead to emissions in 2020 being 5% lower – even in the absence of additional policies – than the IEA estimated just twelve months ago.”
“The impact of the economic crisis and lower growth account for three quarters of this improvement, while government stimulus spending to promote low-carbon investments and other new climate policies account for the remainder,” the early excerpt said.
The press release said the economic downturn “has thereby created an opportunity to put the global energy system on a trajectory to stabilise greenhouse gas emissions at 450 parts per million (ppm) of CO2-equivalent, in line with an increase in global temperature of around 2 degrees Celsius,” a trajectory referred to in the report as the “450 Scenario.”
China seen in ‘leading role’
“The IEA 450 ppm Scenario sees the use of fossil fuels peak before 2020, and energy-related CO2 emissions just 6% higher in 2020 than in 2007. Relative to a Reference Scenario of current policies, emissions in 2020 would need to be reduced by 3.8 gigatonnes (Gt) worldwide to achieve the 450 Scenario. 1.6 Gt of this reduction occurs in OECD countries, while policies and measures in China – already being considered by the Chinese government – account for 1 Gt of emissions reductions, more than anywhere else. This underlines the leading role China will play in the global combat against climate change.”
The cost of the transition would be $10 trillion between 2010 and 2030, but would be largely offset by $8.6 trillion in fuel savings over the same period, the press release said. “Yet we need to act urgently and now. Every year of delay adds an extra USD 500 billion to the investment needed between 2010 and 2030 in the energy sector.”