Gross Domestic Product fell at an annual rate of 1.0 percent in the second quarter, according to advance estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). That marked the fourth consecutive quarter of declining GDP, but the downturn in the second quarter was less severe than those of the three previous quarters, according to a comprehensive revision of historical data released along with the new quarterly estimates.

In addition to the full news release, BEA also issued a one-page PDF summary of the new figures.

This month’s report of advance figures is the first of BEA’s regular three-month cycle of scheduled reports on quarterly GDP. The preliminary estimate for the second quarter will be published on August 27, and the final estimate* on September 30, each incorporating more comprehensive source data.

But along with the advance figures for the second quarter of this year, BEA also released part of a comprehensive revision of historical data the agency conducts every five years, based on revised and newly available data. The new figures indicate that the downturn through 2008 and into the first quarter of 2009 was steeper than previously reported.

The fourth quarter of 2007, generally regarded to mark the onset of the recession, actually saw an increase in GDP of 2.1 percent according to the revised figures, compared with a previously reported decline of 0.2 percent. From the first quarter of 2008 forward, however, the newly revised figures show the economy performing worse than previously reported. “From the fourth quarter of 2007 to the first quarter of 2009, real GDP decreased 2.8 percent at an average annual rate; in the previously published estimates, it had decreased 1.8 percent,” the report said.

Previous estimates indicated that the GDP drop in the first quarter of 2009 had been less severe than that for the fourth quarter of 2008. But the new data show that the biggest dropoff in the current recession occurred in the first quarter of 2009, when GDP declined at an annual rate of 6.4 percent, compared to the previously reported decrease of 5.5 percent (see Table 1A of the July 31 release to compare newly reported to previously published GDP). The downturn in the fourth quarter of 2008, on the other hand, was not as sharp as previously reported: 5.4 percent according to the new revision, compared with 6.3 percent in the previous estimate.

*UPDATE: In the final estimate released on September 30, second quarter GDP was revised upward, to a decline of 0.7 percent.

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