Gross domestic product rose 3.5 percent in the third quarter, according to data reported today by the Commerce Department. The figures marked the first return to growth in the US economy after four consecutive quarters of contraction. Today’s “advance” estimate is the first release of data on third quarter growth, and will be revised based on more comprehensive data in subsequent estimates on November 24 and December 22.

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)

Gross Domestic Product fell at an annual rate of 1.0 percent in the second quarter, according to advance estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). That marked the fourth consecutive quarter of declining GDP, but the downturn in the second quarter was less severe than those of the three previous quarters, according to a comprehensive revision of historical data released along with the new quarterly estimates.

In addition to the full news release, BEA also issued a one-page PDF summary of the new figures.

This month’s report of advance figures is the first of BEA’s regular three-month cycle of scheduled reports on quarterly GDP. The preliminary estimate for the second quarter will be published on August 27, and the final estimate* on September 30, each incorporating more comprehensive source data.

But along with the advance figures for the second quarter of this year, BEA also released part of a comprehensive revision of historical data the agency conducts every five years, based on revised and newly available data. The new figures indicate that the downturn through 2008 and into the first quarter of 2009 was steeper than previously reported.

The fourth quarter of 2007, generally regarded to mark the onset of the recession, actually saw an increase in GDP of 2.1 percent according to the revised figures, compared with a previously reported decline of 0.2 percent. From the first quarter of 2008 forward, however, the newly revised figures show the economy performing worse than previously reported. “From the fourth quarter of 2007 to the first quarter of 2009, real GDP decreased 2.8 percent at an average annual rate; in the previously published estimates, it had decreased 1.8 percent,” the report said.

Previous estimates indicated that the GDP drop in the first quarter of 2009 had been less severe than that for the fourth quarter of 2008. But the new data show that the biggest dropoff in the current recession occurred in the first quarter of 2009, when GDP declined at an annual rate of 6.4 percent, compared to the previously reported decrease of 5.5 percent (see Table 1A of the July 31 release to compare newly reported to previously published GDP). The downturn in the fourth quarter of 2008, on the other hand, was not as sharp as previously reported: 5.4 percent according to the new revision, compared with 6.3 percent in the previous estimate.

*UPDATE: In the final estimate released on September 30, second quarter GDP was revised upward, to a decline of 0.7 percent.

Nine months before the 2010 Census is taken, the Census Bureau is still operating without a Director, as the nomination of Robert Groves remains blocked by a Senate hold six weeks after his nomination was reported out of the Senate Homeland Security Committee by unanimous voice vote. “The longer this nomination is held up, the greater the risk to the accuracy and success of the 2010 Census,” said Commerce Secretary Gary Locke, urging Congress to move the nomination forward.

Citing “serious questions about the Bureau’s preparations for conducting the 2010 Census,” the Government Accountability Office added the 2010 Census to its high-risk list in March 2008.

Two reports released in 2008 by the Congressional Research Service (CRS) covered the practice of anonymous holds in the US Senate. The first (pdf, 169kb) summarized new rules enacted in Section 512 of the Honest Leadership and Open Government Act of 2007 (pdf, 255kb) that were intended, CRS said, “to constrain the frequency of anonymous holds and promote more openness and transparency with respect to their use.” The second CRS report (pdf, 97kb), a more general summary of the practice, concluded that “the newness of Section 512 means that it remains a work in progress. Some time needs to pass before an assessment might be made of its impact and influence on senatorial decisionmaking and behavior.”

We’re starting to get an idea.

UPDATE: The Senate finally voted to confirm Groves as Director on July 13.

First quarter GDP declined at a slightly less rapid pace than reported in earlier estimates, and the decline was less steep than over the previous quarter, according to final estimates reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The final estimate of a 5.5 percent drop in GDP was slightly better than the preliminary estimate of a 5.7 percent decline reported last month, and less steep than the 6.3 percent decline registered in the fourth quarter of last year.

The economy was helped by a 1.4 percent jump in consumer spending, a measure which had fallen by 4.3 percent over the previous quarter, and imports fell more sharply than exports, according to the new numbers.

Advance estimates for second quarter GDP will be reported on July 31.

GDP is one of several measures of the economy included in BEA’s National Income and Product Accounts (NIPAs). BEA has posted documentation which includes an introduction to the NIPAs and a primer on GDP.

The economy shrank in the fourth quarter of 2008 at a revised rate of 6.2%, according to new figures released by the Commerce Department. The new preliminary estimate from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) showed a faster contraction than previously reported in the earlier advance estimate of 3.8 percent. BEA’s technical note on the new estimate said that on the basis of more complete data:

Inventory investment was revised down, reflecting newly available Census inventory data for December and revised data for November. The revision was primarily to manufacturing and wholesale trade inventories.

Exports were revised down, reflecting newly available Census goods data for December.

Consumer spending was revised down, reflecting newly available Energy Information Administration data on gasoline sales and natural gas usage for November, revised Census data on retail sales for November and December, and revised Bureau of Labor Statistics seasonally adjusted consumer price indexes that were used for deflation.

The release of final fourth quarter data will be made on March 26.

~ Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, US Dept. of Commerce

UPDATE: The fourth quarter GDP decline was revised to 6.3 percent in the final estimates released March 26. A summary (pdf, 120kb) posted in April said the fourth-quarter downturn was the steepest since the first quarter of 1982. The April summary also reported an increase in the personal savings rate to 3.2 percent, from 1.3 percent in the third quarter, along with data on personal income, corporate profits, and more.

Gross domestic product shrank 3.8 percent in the fourth quarter of 2008, according to advance figures reported by the Commerce Department. For all of 2008, GDP increased 1.3 compared with 2 percent in 2007. Exports fell nearly 20 percent and personal consumption declined 3.5 percent in the fourth quarter, the report said.

A highlight sheet (pdf, 35kb) said the fourth quarter decline reflected:

• A sharp downturn in exports, the first decline since the second quarter of 2003
• A decline in consumer spending, similar to the third-quarter decline
• A much larger decline in business investment in structures, equipment and software
• A continuing decline in housing

UPDATE: See later coverage of this topic for the interim and final fourth quarter estimates.

Gross domestic product fell at an annual rate of 0.3 percent in the third quarter, its worst showing in seven years, according to advance estimates released October 30 (pdf, 149kb). The findings came in a report from the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis, which will follow up with its “preliminary” estimate in November based on more comprehensive data. Declining personal consumption and slowing exports were primary contributors to the downturn, which followed a 2.8 percent increase in the second quarter, the report said. Real personal consumption expenditures fell by 3.1 percent in the third quarter, and real spending on durable goods decreased 14.1 percent.

Citing challenges which “raise serious questions about the (Census) Bureau’s preparations for conducting the 2010 Census,” the Government Accountability Office (GAO) has added the 2010 Census (pdf, 360kb) to its list of high-risk areas in the federal government. Noting the importance of the census as a “Constitutionally-mandated activity that produces critical data used to apportion congressional seats and allocate billions of dollars in federal assistance,” the GAO said that “threats to a timely and reliable census can affect the public’s confidence in government.”

Challenges facing the 2010 Census include cost overruns, schedule delays, and uncertain performance of new technologies including troublesome handheld devices, GAO said. They create “a potential risk for an incomplete or inaccurate census, which would be detrimental to the administration of federal financial assistance for government programs and to the enforcement, for example, of citizens’ rights under the Voting Rights Act.”

“In this emergency, the Bureau will have to make quick decisions to ensure that the project can achieve its purpose.”

Update: The Commerce Department has decided to significantly curtail its plans to use handheld devices for the 2010 Census data collection.

See also the Commerce Department press release announcing the changes.

Growth in the U.S. economy slowed considerably in the last three months of 2007, according to figures released by the Commerce Department (pdf, 108kb). The report by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) said fourth quarter real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) fell to an annual rate of 0.6 percent, down from 4.9 percent in the third quarter. The growth in real GDP in 2007 overall was 2.2 percent, down from 2.9 percent in 2006.

“The deceleration in real GDP growth in the fourth quarter primarily reflected a downturn in inventory investment and decelerations in exports, in [personal consumption expenditures], and in federal government spending that were partly offset by a deceleration in imports and an acceleration in state and local government spending,” the report said.

The report also said US consumers faced rising prices, as the “price index for gross domestic purchases, which measures prices paid by U.S. residents, increased 3.8 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 1.8 percent in the third.”

Sales of new single-family homes declined 26.4 percent in 2007, according to December housing statistics (pdf, 36kb) reported by the Commerce Department. The one-month decline from November to December was 4.7 percent, and the seasonally adjusted estimate of 604,000 sales for the month was 40.7 percent below the December 2006 estimate.